After the most popular 531 New Deal era, photovolt

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After the "531 New Deal" era: photovoltaic through to the dark moment

on the afternoon of May 11, Zhang Xiaobin, Deputy Secretary General of Shandong Solar Energy Association and deputy director of the photovoltaic special committee, was busy participating in a Photovoltaic Conference in Jinan, with the theme around the training of household dealers. "Many enterprises choose Shandong as the first stop to start users, and they will be more busy in a few days." He told China business daily

a year ago, such a busy day was obviously rare. On May 31, 2018, the "531 New Deal", known as the "strictest photovoltaic policy in history" in the industry, was released, which clearly controlled the scale of photovoltaic construction and reduced subsidies. For a time, the photovoltaic industry wailed, like entering a dark moment

now, nearly a year has passed, and the photovoltaic market pattern has changed. The once deserted household photovoltaic market is gradually improving, and the ground power station market will also be fully launched through the bidding and parity mechanism. In addition, while the scale of the domestic market suddenly shrank, the overseas market quickly became popular. In this context, enterprises have moved overseas to seize the market

compete for overseas markets

recalling the overseas market in the second half of last year, Li Dong (a pseudonym), a market head of Longji stock in the Asia Pacific region who has been traveling overseas for many years, has a deep understanding. "After the '531 New Deal' was implemented, the changes in the domestic market were quickly transmitted overseas. Some enterprises took the initiative to reduce product prices in order to seek market share. Taking the price of polycrystalline components as an example, the price of polycrystalline components basically remained at 29 cents in June last year, and by the end of 2018, it had fallen to 21 cents. Corporate profits were depressed and competition was significantly intensified."

not only that, this change is also reflected in Europe, Australia, the Americas, the Middle East and Africa, especially after the end of the price fixing mechanism (MIP) in September 2018, the component price in the European market fell by more than 30%

behind the price decline, the competition pattern has quietly changed. Taking India as an example, Zhengxin and Jinneng have rapidly improved their rankings and are becoming competitors of companies such as Jing'ao, GCL, Trinasolar, Atlas, Dongfang Risheng and Chint. The deformation measurement index parameters of the electronic universal experimental machine have a measurement range. In March 2019, the patent infringement of passivation technology, which has attracted much attention in the industry, may also prove the white hot competition in the overseas market

statistics show that in 2018, domestic first-line component enterprises Jinke energy, Atlas, Trinasolar, Zhengtai and Jingao accounted for more than 60% of overseas shipments, and Longji shares, which has a slightly later overseas layout, is expected to account for 60% of overseas shipments in 2019

in 2019, driven by the overseas market, the domestic front-line component manufacturing industry has full orders and is basically in full production. The proportion of overseas shipments of some enterprises in the first quarter has climbed to 90%

India Rongfang, executive vice president of Trinasolar, said in an interview a few days ago that in the first half of the year, Europe, Vietnam, such as asset securitization south, Latin America, Japan and other regions and countries were the peak season of demand, while in the second half of the year, the United States, Australia and domestic and other places were the peak season, supporting the market demand of the whole year

compared with China, Lu Chuan, President of Chint new energy, continues to be optimistic about the foreign market. He explained that the annual increment of overseas markets is relatively stable, and has also shown a high growth trend in recent years. At present, there are more and more GW level markets scattered around the world

according to insiders, the overseas market will achieve more than expected development this year, and the proportion of global installed capacity will further increase to more than 65%. According to the latest report of energytrend, an industry research institution, it is estimated that there will be more than 16 markets with installed PV capacity exceeding GW level in 2019

comprehensive bidding performance

while promoting the rise of overseas markets, the "531 New Deal" has also accelerated the industry into a new stage of coexistence of non subsidy parity and competitive allocation, and promoted the transition of the industry from "policy driven" to "market driven"

in January 2019, the national development and Reform Commission and the national energy administration took the lead in issuing a notice on actively promoting the work related to the non subsidy parity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, officially opening the curtain of parity. Then, in April, the two ministries and commissions successively issued three documents, namely, the work plan on promoting the construction of projects on the subsidized parity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation (Exposure Draft), the notice on soliciting relevant requirements for the construction and management of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in 2019 (exposure draft) (hereinafter referred to as "photovoltaic management draft") and the notice on improving the photovoltaic power pricing mechanism (hereinafter referred to as "2019 new electricity price deal"), It is pointed out that under the general tone of seeking progress in stability, photovoltaic power generation projects requiring state subsidies should be allocated in a competitive manner on the basis of giving priority to the construction of affordable projects. At the same time, the subsidy standards for various photovoltaic projects requiring subsidies in 2019 were clarified

Tao Ye, deputy director of the renewable energy center of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, believes that according to the current policy formulation progress and implementation expectations, the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2019 will be the start-up and centralized construction period of the domestic photovoltaic market

he also said that the implementation of bidding and parity policies has put forward new requirements for the whole industrial chain and government departments at all levels. First, governments at all levels are required to continue to transform government functions and deepen the reform of "amodel a (8) 930 HS PPA is a 30% glass fiber reinforced thermosetting polymer pipe service", so as to promote the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation and enable the industry to achieve independent development in the future power market environment; The second is to force all links of the whole industrial chain to reduce costs, including non-technical costs, to ensure the smooth realization of the parity goal

Peng Peng, Secretary General of China new energy power investment and financing alliance, said that under the trend of parity, photovoltaic enterprises on the one hand should continue to promote technological innovation and reduce the cost of kwh; On the other hand, we should also accurately position according to our actual situation. State owned enterprises can focus on ground projects, and private enterprises can develop distributed small projects

the general manager of Shangneng electrical products department also reflected a new demand for cost reduction from power station developers. He said that at present, it is difficult to meet the owner's needs by relying on simple device cost reduction. At present, it is necessary to reduce the single watt cost through 1500V and other new power station design principles, such as the concept of sample section selection and cost reduction technology, and the cost reduction brought by the innovative system driven by inverter will be the core element to support parity and bidding projects

"after the parity pilot project is implemented, a large area of parity projects will appear." Peng Peng also believes that the current competition between renewable energy and thermal power at the same price is not fair, and does not reflect the environmental rights and interests of renewable energy. After the introduction of renewable energy quota system, I believe that without subsidies, it is fully capable of competing with thermal power

after nearly a year of silence, the household photovoltaic market has ushered in an important change - independent management, which may mean that dealers are making a comeback

in April 2019, the national energy administration and the national development and Reform Commission successively issued the draft of photovoltaic management opinions and the new deal of 2019 electricity price, pointing out that household photovoltaic is managed separately, the subsidy amount of 750million yuan is cut, the annual installed capacity of 3.5gW is determined, and the fixed subsidy standard is adjusted to 0.18 yuan/kWh

this makes Shandong Province, once the hottest household market, boiling again. On the afternoon of May 11, Zhang Xiaobin was busy attending a Photovoltaic Conference in Jinan, with the theme of household dealer training. After the new electricity price deal was finalized, he finally breathed a sigh of relief and was pleased with his accurate prediction. "Many enterprises choose Shandong as the first stop to start users, and they will be more busy in a few days." He said

after the "531 New Deal" was implemented, the household market in Shandong basically "died down", and dealers of all sizes left one after another. According to reports, in the first half of the year, 20000 enterprises involved in photovoltaic business were registered through the industrial and commercial system in Shandong Province, while up to now, there are only a few thousand enterprises that really do photovoltaic business. "The '531 New Deal' has forced those who invest to make fast money to leave. Most of the rest are enterprises with brands and strength. They will also look for 'big trees' to rely on when they come back."

Wang Lei (a pseudonym), a local dealer in Shandong, told that at present, it will take some time to repair the confidence of the household market, and the photovoltaic loan mode and leasing mode with financial support are more dominant

take the leasing mode as an example. When the investor of the power station rents the user's roof, the user can get a roof rental fee of 1000 yuan per year based on a photovoltaic panel of 20 yuan. This mode is more acceptable to the common people, which is also in line with the idea of dealers who intend to return to the industry, and is conducive to the market in a large scale. "At present, dealers adopting this mode have swept villages in a large area, and it is expected that they will account for half of the market in Shandong this year according to the development trend." Wang Lei said

according to expert analysis, under the first come, first served mechanism, the user index is 3.5gW, which will inevitably set off a rush for loading

in this context, many dealers have started the "low price" mode. Wang Lei talked about the actual situation. He just made a 100kW full fund project, but he didn't make much money. Some dealers were killing their prices badly

Zhang Xiaobin believes that "this year's household market will be very competitive, or rush to load on a provincial basis. But at the same time, dealers are becoming more and more rational. In order to control risks, they will not stock up in large quantities. It is predicted that the market will almost reach the end of the year, mainly concentrated in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other provinces, but Shandong is expected to dominate."

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