The hottest index rose slightly, and the global ec

2022-08-08
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The index rose slightly, and the global economy maintained a weak operating pattern

according to the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, in November 2019, the global manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49% from the previous month, rising slightly for two consecutive months, but still at a low level. According to the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, in November 2019, the global manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49% from the previous month, rising slightly for two consecutive months, But it is still at a low level, running below 50% for five consecutive months. In terms of subregions, the PMI of European manufacturing industry rebounded slightly, but the index remained at a low level of 7.9% as mentioned above; The manufacturing PMI in the Americas fell slightly, with the index at a low level of 48.7%; PMI of Asian manufacturing industry rebounded to near the critical point; African Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged from the previous month and remained at a high level of more than 52%

with the change of comprehensive data, cflp-gpmi has risen slightly in a row, the downward trend of the global manufacturing industry has eased, and the decline has narrowed, but the rebound rate is only 0.2 percentage points, the index remains below 50%, and the downward pressure on the global economy continues. In the general environment where trade frictions are common, the growth momentum of global investment and trade is insufficient. The counter cyclical adjustment policies of various countries have curbed the downward trend of economic growth to a certain extent, but the boosting effect is limited. The downward trend of the global economy is difficult to change in a short time. In the weak operation, the reversal will be the main feature of the future global economic operation. The latest OECD Economic Outlook report predicts that the global GDP growth rate this year will be 2.9%, the lowest since the financial crisis; In 2020 and 2021, the global economic growth rate will remain at the level of 2.9% - 3.0%

from a subregional perspective, it shows the following characteristics:

European manufacturing industry has recovered, and the low level of PMI has continued to rise

in November 2019, the PMI of European manufacturing industry increased slightly for two consecutive months, up 0.4 percentage points to 47.9% from the previous month. From the perspective of changes in major countries, manufacturing PMI in Germany and France have rebounded significantly, while manufacturing PMI in Britain and Italy fell slightly. From the index level, France is still the main force supporting the rebound of European manufacturing industry. Its manufacturing PMI rose to more than 51% and remained at more than 50% for four consecutive months. Although the German manufacturing PMI rebounded, the index remained at a low level of 44.1%, indicating that the German manufacturing industry still maintained a weak pattern, and the decline was narrowed compared with the previous month

with the change of the composite index, the PMI of European manufacturing industry has rebounded continuously, but the index is still at a relatively low level of 47.9%, indicating that the European manufacturing industry has recovered from the previous situation, but it has not yet got rid of the weak operation pattern. According to the forecast report released by the international monetary fund a few days ago, the economy of the euro zone faced the risk of contraction in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the real GDP growth rate in Europe this year will be only 1.4%, falling to the lowest level since 2013. Under the weak situation, the expectation of continued monetary easing of the European Central Bank is still strong, but even if it continues to loosen, its support for economic growth is relatively limited. Weak external demand is still the dominant factor restricting economic growth in Europe. Inward policies and the use of fiscal and monetary policies to boost domestic demand are the key to the strengthening of European manufacturing. The relatively rapid growth of French manufacturing industry is due to the expansion of investment expenditure by the government

the manufacturing industry in the Americas maintained a weak operation, and the PMI fell slightly

in November 2019, the PMI of the manufacturing industry in the Americas failed to continue the rebound trend of the previous month, falling 0.2 percentage points to 48.7% this month, below 50% for four consecutive months. From the perspective of major countries, the manufacturing PMI of Canada and Brazil rebounded slightly from the previous month, while the manufacturing PMI of the United States and Mexico fell to varying degrees. With the change of the composite index, the manufacturing industry in the Americas failed to continue the rebound trend of last month, and the growth rate slowed down again this month. The PMI continued to operate below 50%, and the overall operation was weak

The ISM report shows that the U.S. manufacturing industry remains weak. In November 2019, the PMI of U.S. manufacturing industry fell 0.2 percentage points to 48.1% from the previous month, running below 50% for four consecutive months. The sub index shows that insufficient domestic and foreign demand is the main factor for the weakening operation of the U.S. manufacturing industry. The new order index fell 1.9 percentage points to 47.2% from the previous month, and the new export order index fell 2.5 percentage points to 47.9% from the previous month. Under the influence of falling demand, employment activity in the United States also slowed down, and the employment index fell 1.1 percentage points to 46.6% from the previous month. Data changes show that the PMI of the U.S. manufacturing industry continues to operate at a relatively low level, and the manufacturing industry continues to weaken, which is difficult to change in the short term. The fall in demand and the impact of many uncertain factors in the future make enterprises cautious about future market expectations. The poor performance of the manufacturing industry reflects that the effect of the trump administration's policies related to tax reduction and revitalization of the manufacturing industry has weakened, the impact of trade friction on the U.S. manufacturing industry has also appeared, and the market expectation of the United States to implement a more relaxed monetary policy has strengthened

Asian manufacturing industry stabilized, and PMI rose to near the critical point

in November 2019, the PMI of Asian manufacturing industry rose 0.6 percentage points to 49.9% from the previous month. Among the major countries, China, Japan, India, South Korea and other countries' manufacturing PMI have rebounded to varying degrees. With the change of the composite index, the PMI of Asian manufacturing industry rebounded to near the critical point of 50%, and the manufacturing industry showed signs of stabilization. The stabilizing operation of China's manufacturing industry is one of the main driving forces for the stabilization of Asian manufacturing industry. In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and returned to the expansion range after operating below 50% for six consecutive months. The sub index shows that domestic demand expanded this month, external demand improved, enterprise procurement and production activities became active, and employment was relatively stable. A number of positive factors jointly led to a significant rebound in manufacturing PMI this month. First, the counter cyclical macroeconomic regulation policy and the policy of reducing taxes and fees from raw materials to equipment in the plastic industry itself have been better implemented, and the domestic market demand potential has been released; Second, the holiday consumption expectation at the end of the year has driven the development of the consumer goods industry; Third, affected by the positive signals of Sino US economic and trade friction negotiations, external demand has improved; Fourth, a number of key industries have been relatively stable, and the growth rate has rebounded, which has a good supporting effect on the stabilization and rise of the economy

Asian economic growth remains an important engine supporting global economic development. In order to cope with the downward pressure on the global economy, Asian countries have increased infrastructure investment on the basis of maintaining relatively loose monetary policy, hedging the downward pressure on the economy to a certain extent

the manufacturing industry in Africa has maintained rapid growth, and the PMI has maintained a relatively high level

in November 2019, the PMI of African manufacturing industry fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, maintaining a high level of 52.4%, indicating that African manufacturing industry still maintains rapid growth. From the perspective of major countries, Nigeria's manufacturing industry has accelerated again on the basis of sustained and rapid growth, which is the main driving force for Africa's manufacturing industry to maintain rapid growth. The growth of Egypt and South Africa's manufacturing industry is relatively weak, and manufacturing PMI has fallen to varying degrees. The change of the index shows that the economic development momentum of Africa is still relatively strong, and market confidence tends to be optimistic. Demographic dividend, urbanization and industrialization development potential are the main factors supporting rapid economic growth. Strengthening regional integration and cooperation in Africa has also become the main driving force for Africa's economic development. African free trade area member countries will reduce tariffs by 90% on imports from other African countries. The survey report on the overall experimental process of the United Nations' high stability control shows that this may increase intra African Trade by 52.3%, and the free trade area will also help improve the investment prospects of the African continent

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